Some investors asked us early on about so-called “Trump trades”—not tariffs, but stocks and sectors believed to be poised to do well under the Trump Administration.
Starting in November 2024, once the next president became known, the market began to climb—partly because markets often rise on reduced uncertainty after elections, and partly because nearly every market forecaster rolled out a list of stocks expected to be “winners” under Trump’s second term.
While it will take years to fully assess the outcomes, we can already see how some of these bets have fared. Overall, there are mixed results. Companies linked to Trump’s agenda, including some defense and technology firms, saw significant early gains.
The Trump Administration has been a strong proponent of deregulation, viewing it as crucial for economic growth, innovation, and reducing burdens on businesses. Deregulation is typically beneficial for banks and small businesses, as it lowers compliance costs and allows for greater flexibility in lending. Since November 6, 2024, banks have posted a total return of approximately 2.6%, as measured by the S&P Regional Banking Index, while small-cap stocks are up about 1.7%, as measured by the S&P Small 600 Index.
Donald Trump consistently prioritizes domestic production, aiming to boost U.S. manufacturing, bring jobs back home, strengthen national security, and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains. This approach is often viewed as a signal that U.S. markets would outperform international markets. While the S&P 500 is up around 18% for the year—hardly anything to sneeze at— developed and emerging international markets have both risen about 26%, as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
The cryptocurrency market experienced a massive post-election surge, but that excitement began to fade in early 2025, with prices generally correcting throughout the year. Meanwhile, despite the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, the president’s relationship with Elon Musk has appeared to benefit Tesla, whose stock has risen more than 50% since Election Day.
These results highlight how little in investing is obvious or guaranteed. If outcomes were easy to predict, everyone would do it. And when everyone piles into the same trade, investors often end up chasing hype rather than building lasting returns.
In April, Trump’s global tariffs announcement was followed by a sharp market sell-off. About a week later, the president posted on social media that it was a “great time to buy.” Just hours after that post, the tariffs were temporarily paused, sending the market up more than 9% in a single day. While the actions may not be related, would you have interpreted it as a signal—or would you have approached it with skepticism, given the market was coming off a near 20% downturn?
Conceptually, investors believe they’re buying low and selling high, but results aren’t truly known until long after the opportunity has passed. This is market timing. By contrast, a typical long-term S&P 500 investor is up around 18% this year—a historically strong result.
There’s no magic bullet for timing the market. The real advantage comes from discipline, not prediction—and from staying focused on the plan when the noise is loudest.
If you have questions on your investments, the experts at Henssler Financial will be glad to help:
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- Email: experts@henssler.com
- Phone: 770-429-9166
Listen to the December 13, 2025 “Henssler Money Talks” episode.